2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ CLE – Week 8 2020
LV
CLE
LV
AWAY
16@6
LV +10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 58%Projected margin: 1.5
CLE
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
1.5
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LV won. Projected margin was 1.5 -- the model overestimated by 11.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
HIGH WIND
35 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
35 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
Darren Waller
TE
278.6SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
272.1SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
231.3SEASON PPR
CLE
Baker Mayfield
QB
248.6SEASON PPR
Kareem Hunt
RB
218.5SEASON PPR
Nick Chubb
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW12 2025 | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV | L |
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES