Raiders vs Browns – Week 8 2020
LV
CLE
LV
AWAY
16@6
LV BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 16, Cleveland Browns 6.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 3 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 58%Our line: CLE -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.085Net EPA / play+0.011
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.088 (10)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (23)
46.5% (11)Offense success %46.6% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but LV won. Projected margin was 2.8, the model overestimated by 12.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
HIGH WIND
35 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
35 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@LVW12 2025 | CLE 24, LV 10 | LV | L |
| CLE@LVW4 2024 | CLE 16, LV 20 | LV | W |
| LV@CLEW15 2021 | LV 16, CLE 14 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.8. The market has CLE at -1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 16, CLE 6. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -1.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 8, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 0.4 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 24, LV 10 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: LV -0.085 against CLE +0.011.
