Chargers vs Broncos – Week 8 2020
LAC
DEN
LAC
AWAY
30@31
DEN BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 30, Denver Broncos 31.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 58%Our line: DEN -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.027 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
+0.026 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
43.2% (24)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 2.7. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LACW5 2026 | DEN 23, LAC 17 | DEN | W |
| LAC@DENW18 2025 | LAC 3, DEN 19 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LACW3 2025 | DEN 20, LAC 23 | LAC | W |
| DEN@LACW16 2024 | DEN 27, LAC 34 | DEN | L |
| LAC@DENW6 2024 | LAC 23, DEN 16 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 2.7. The market has DEN at +3.0.
Denver Broncos won, LAC 30, DEN 31. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at +3.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 1.4 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 23, LAC 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against DEN -0.147.
