PIT @ BAL – Week 8 2020
PIT
BAL
PIT
AWAY
28@24
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 8
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 61%Our line: BAL -3.7
BAL
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.7
OUR LINE
-156
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.180
+0.010Offense EPA / play+0.120
-0.118Defense EPA / play-0.060
43.2%Offense success %45.8%
38.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 3.7, the model overestimated by 7.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +178 | -200 |
| Our fair price | +156 | -156 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
65%
DIFFERENCE
-4%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
Chase Claypool62 rec · 873 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@PITW11 2024 | BAL 16, PIT 18 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.7. The market has BAL at -4.0.
The model projects 48.2 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 8 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: PIT +0.128 against BAL +0.180.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
