2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ PIT – Week 11 2024
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
16@18
PIT +2
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 62%Projected margin: -1.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 3.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
209.5SEASON PPR
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES