Ravens vs Steelers – Week 11 2024
BAL
PIT
BAL
AWAY
16@18
PIT BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 16, Pittsburgh Steelers 18.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 3 Steelers.
Model confidence: BAL 62%Our line: BAL -4.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -4.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.269Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.218 (1)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
-0.051 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
50.0% (2)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but PIT won. Projected margin was 4.3, the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@PITW18 2025 | BAL 24, PIT 26 | PIT | W |
| PIT@BALW14 2025 | PIT 27, BAL 22 | BAL | L |
| PIT@BALW16 2024 | PIT 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| PIT@BALW18 2023 | PIT 17, BAL 10 | BAL | L |
| BAL@PITW5 2023 | BAL 10, PIT 17 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs PIT
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 4.3. The market has BAL at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, BAL 16, PIT 18. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 2.0 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, BAL 24, PIT 26 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.269 against PIT -0.016.
