Jaguars vs Lions – Week 11 2024
JAX
DET
JAX
AWAY
6@52
DET BY 46
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 6, Detroit Lions 52.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jaguars, 4 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 78%Our line: DET -10.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -10.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.149Net EPA / play+0.232
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.170 (3)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (6)
41.5% (21)Offense success %50.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 46. Off by 35.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 32.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW13 2022 | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET | W |
| DET@JAXW6 2020 | DET 34, JAX 16 | JAX | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 10.4. The market has DET at -14.0.
Detroit Lions won, JAX 6, DET 52. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -14.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 11, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 0.6 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, JAX 14, DET 40 in Week 13 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: JAX -0.149 against DET +0.232.
