JAX @ DET – Week 11 2024
JAX
DET
JAX
AWAY
6@52
DET BY 46
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 78%Our line: DET -10.4
DET
PICK SIDE
-14.0
MARKET SPREAD
-10.4
OUR LINE
-354
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.149Net EPA / play+0.232
-0.020Offense EPA / play+0.170
+0.129Defense EPA / play-0.062
41.5%Offense success %50.1%
45.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.4. Actual: 46. Off by 35.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 32.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +650 | -1000 |
| Our fair price | +354 | -354 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -14.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.13
OUR NUMBER
78%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
87%
DIFFERENCE
-9%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0 SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence2045 yd · 11 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Bigsby766 yd · 7 TD
T.Etienne558 yd · 2 TD
D.Johnson143 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
B.Thomas87 rec · 1282 yd · 10 TD
B.Strange40 rec · 411 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW13 2022 | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET | W |
| DET@JAXW6 2020 | DET 34, JAX 16 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project DET by 10.4. The market has DET at -14.0.
The model projects 46.9 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, JAX 14, DET 40 in Week 13 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Detroit Lions: JAX -0.149 against DET +0.232.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
