2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ DET – Week 11 2024
JAX
DET
JAX
AWAY
6@52
DET +46
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER S
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 78%Projected margin: 10.9
DET
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
10.9
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 10.9. Actual: 46. Off by 35.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 32.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -1000 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
DET
road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2SEASON PPR
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
354.9SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
324.5SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@DETW13 2022 | JAX 14, DET 40 | DET | W |
| DET@JAXW6 2020 | DET 34, JAX 16 | JAX | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES