Colts vs Jets – Week 11 2024
IND
NYJ
IND
AWAY
28@27
IND BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 28, New York Jets 27.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Colts, 3 Jets.
Model confidence: IND 59%Our line: IND -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.061Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.057 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (17)
+0.004 (13)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
40.2% (28)Offense success %42.6% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 3.0. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@INDW9 2021 | NYJ 30, IND 45 | IND | W |
| NYJ@INDW3 2020 | NYJ 7, IND 36 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs NYJ
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 3.0. The market has IND at +4.0.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 28, NYJ 27. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +4.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 11, the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 2.5 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, NYJ 30, IND 45 in Week 9 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Jets: IND -0.061 against NYJ -0.037.
