2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ NYJ – Week 11 2024
IND
NYJ
IND
AWAY
28@27
IND +1
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
NYJ
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: IND 59%Projected margin: -0.4
IND
PICK SIDE
+4.0
SPREAD
-0.4
PROJ MARGIN
+178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected IND by 0.4. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 0.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | +178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +170 | Won · +$1.78 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
62°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
165.8SEASON PPR
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@INDW9 2021 | NYJ 30, IND 45 | IND | W |
| NYJ@INDW3 2020 | NYJ 7, IND 36 | IND | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES