Commanders vs Eagles – Week 11 2024
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
18@26
PHI BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 18, Philadelphia Eagles 26.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders.
Model confidence: PHI 66%Our line: PHI -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.128Net EPA / play+0.212
+0.139 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.114 (6)
+0.011 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.098 (2)
48.5% (4)Offense success %45.3% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PHI by 5.5. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
No noteworthy trends
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 5.5. The market has PHI at -4.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, WAS 18, PHI 26. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -4.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 11, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 3.1 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Philadelphia Eagles: WAS +0.128 against PHI +0.212.
