2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ PHI – Week 11 2024
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
18@26
PHI +8
FINAL · WEEK 11
2024 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PHI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PHI 66%Projected margin: 4.4
PHI
PICK SIDE
-4.5
SPREAD
4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 4.4. Actual: 8. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.5 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -230 | Won · +$0.52 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
No noteworthy trends
PHI
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
WAS
J.Daniels
QB
355.8SEASON PPR
T.McLaurin
WR
267.8SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
177.4SEASON PPR
PHI
S.Barkley
RB
355.3SEASON PPR
J.Hurts
QB
315.1SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW4 2023 | WAS 31, PHI 34 | PHI | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES