2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ PHI – Week 18 2025
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
24@17
WAS +7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
PHI
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: PHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PHI 80%Projected margin: 9.9
PHI
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
9.9
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 9.9 -- the model overestimated by 16.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | PHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
WAS
D.Samuel
WR
188.2SEASON PPR
J.Croskey-Merritt
RB
140.3SEASON PPR
Z.Ertz
TE
126.4SEASON PPR
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW4 2023 | WAS 31, PHI 34 | PHI | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES