Commanders vs Eagles – Week 18 2025
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
24@17
WAS BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 24, Philadelphia Eagles 17.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 80% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 6 Eagles.
Model confidence: PHI 80%Our line: PHI -11.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -11.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
-0.137Net EPA / play+0.105
+0.005 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
+0.142 (30)Defense EPA / play-0.079 (8)
45.6% (10)Offense success %43.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but WAS won. Projected margin was 11.3, the model overestimated by 18.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW8 2023 | PHI 38, WAS 31 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PHI by 11.3. The market has PHI at -3.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 24, PHI 17. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 80% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 18, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Philadelphia Eagles were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.9, 5.4 above the market.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: WAS -0.137 against PHI +0.105.
