2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ JAX – Week 18 2025
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
7@41
JAX +34
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER S
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 84%Projected margin: 12.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-12.5
SPREAD
12.5
PROJ MARGIN
-604
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 12.5. Actual: 34. Off by 21.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -12.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -604 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.17 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES