TEN @ JAX – Week 18 2025
TEN
JAX
TEN
AWAY
7@41
JAX BY 34
FINAL · WEEK 18
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 84%Our line: JAX -13.5
JAX
PICK SIDE
-12.5
MARKET SPREAD
-13.5
OUR LINE
-533
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 18
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.100Defense EPA / play-0.105
37.4%Offense success %44.4%
45.1%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 13.5. Actual: 34. Off by 20.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 21.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +525 | -750 |
| Our fair price | +533 | -533 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -12.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.17
OUR NUMBER
84%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-0%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
55°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7 SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8 SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 18
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW14 2024 | JAX 10, TEN 6 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 84% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project JAX by 13.5. The market has JAX at -12.5.
The model projects 46.2 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 18 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 25, TEN 3 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: TEN -0.260 against JAX +0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 18 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
