2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ TEN – Week 14 2024
JAX
TEN
JAX
AWAY
10@6
JAX +4
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 62%Projected margin: -0.7
JAX
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 0.7. Actual: 4. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +142 | Won · +$1.54 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
53°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2SEASON PPR
TEN
T.Pollard
RB
200.7SEASON PPR
C.Ridley
WR
199.2SEASON PPR
N.Westbrook-Ikhine
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@JAXW18 2025 | TEN 7, JAX 41 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW13 2025 | JAX 25, TEN 3 | JAX | W |
| TEN@JAXW17 2024 | TEN 13, JAX 20 | JAX | W |
| JAX@TENW18 2023 | JAX 20, TEN 28 | JAX | L |
| TEN@JAXW11 2023 | TEN 14, JAX 34 | JAX | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES