2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ KC – Week 14 2024
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
17@19
KC +2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 71%Projected margin: 6.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-5.0
SPREAD
6.0
PROJ MARGIN
-205
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 2. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -205 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -238 | Won · +$0.49 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
191.8SEASON PPR
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
| LAC@KCW7 2023 | LAC 17, KC 31 | KC | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES