Chargers vs Chiefs – Week 14 2024
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
17@19
KC BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 17, Kansas City Chiefs 19.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: KC 71%Our line: KC -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.100Net EPA / play+0.059
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (9)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (16)
42.0% (20)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 7.5. Actual: 2. Off by 5.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW6 2026 | LAC 6, KC 22 | KC | W |
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project KC by 7.5. The market has KC at -5.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, LAC 17, KC 19. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -5.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 14, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, LAC 6, KC 22 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against KC +0.059.
