Raiders vs Buccaneers – Week 14 2024
LV
TB
LV
AWAY
13@28
TB BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 4 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 72%Our line: TB -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -7.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.164Net EPA / play+0.115
-0.143 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.130 (5)
+0.021 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
40.5% (26)Offense success %49.5% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 15. Off by 7.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
71°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Minshew2013 yd · 9 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
A.Mattison420 yd · 4 TD
A.Abdullah311 yd · 2 TD
Z.White183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
B.Bowers112 rec · 1194 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 7.9. The market has TB at -7.0.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers won, LV 13, TB 28. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -7.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 14, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 0.3 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 45, LV 20 in Week 7 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LV -0.164 against TB +0.115.
