NO @ NYG – Week 14 2024
NO
NYG
NO
AWAY
14@11
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NO 68%Our line: NO -6.4
NO
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.4
OUR LINE
-215
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.101Net EPA / play-0.170
-0.057Offense EPA / play-0.107
+0.044Defense EPA / play+0.063
40.6%Offense success %40.5%
44.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 3. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -245 | +200 |
| Our fair price | -215 | +215 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
68%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NO
A.Kamara
RB
265.3 SEASON PPR
D.Carr
QB
150.9 SEASON PPR
J.Johnson
TE
122.8 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
D.Carr2145 yd · 15 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
A.Kamara950 yd · 6 TD
J.Williams164 yd · 1 TD
K.Miller148 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Johnson50 rec · 548 yd · 3 TD
A.Kamara68 rec · 543 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@NOW5 2025 | NYG 14, NO 26 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW15 2023 | NYG 6, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW4 2021 | NYG 27, NO 21 | NO | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 6.4. The market has NO at -5.5.
The model projects 44.8 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NYG 14, NO 26 in Week 5 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.101 against NYG -0.170.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
