Saints vs Giants – Week 14 2024
NO
NYG
NO
AWAY
14@11
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 14, New York Giants 11.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 5 Giants.
Model confidence: NO 68%Our line: NO -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.101Net EPA / play-0.170
-0.057 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.107 (28)
+0.044 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.063 (28)
40.6% (23)Offense success %40.5% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 3. Off by 3.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
13 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@NYGW6 2026 | NO 34, NYG 27 | NYG | L |
| NYG@NOW5 2025 | NYG 14, NO 26 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW15 2023 | NYG 6, NO 24 | NO | W |
| NYG@NOW4 2021 | NYG 27, NO 21 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs NYG
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 6.4. The market has NO at -5.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 14, NYG 11. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -5.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 14, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 3.8 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 34, NYG 27 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New Orleans Saints: NO -0.101 against NYG -0.170.
