2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ MIA – Week 14 2024
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
26@32
MIA +6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
MIA
HOME
TIER A
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 71%Projected margin: 6.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 6.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -298 | Won · +$0.39 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYJ
A.Rodgers
QB
256.6SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
251.9SEASON PPR
B.Hall
RB
240.9SEASON PPR
MIA
D.Achane
RB
299.9SEASON PPR
J.Smith
TE
222.3SEASON PPR
T.Hill
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES