Jets vs Dolphins – Week 14 2024
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
AWAY
26@32
MIA BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 26, Miami Dolphins 32.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets.
Model confidence: MIA 71%Our line: MIA -7.6
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.017
-0.013 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.039 (21)
+0.024 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.022 (9)
42.6% (18)Offense success %44.3% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 7.6. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
MIA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NYJW14 2025 | MIA 34, NYJ 10 | MIA | W |
| NYJ@MIAW4 2025 | NYJ 21, MIA 27 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW18 2024 | MIA 20, NYJ 32 | MIA | L |
| NYJ@MIAW15 2023 | NYJ 0, MIA 30 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NYJW12 2023 | MIA 34, NYJ 13 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.6. The market has MIA at -6.5.
Miami Dolphins won, NYJ 26, MIA 32. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -6.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 14, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 0.9 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, NYJ 10 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: NYJ -0.037 against MIA -0.017.
