Bears vs 49ers – Week 14 2024
CHI
SF
CHI
AWAY
13@38
SF BY 25
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 13, San Francisco 49ers 38.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bears, 5 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 68%Our line: SF -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -6.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.088Net EPA / play+0.028
-0.082 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.069 (10)
+0.006 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.041 (23)
39.9% (30)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 25. Off by 18.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 22.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
home_underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-1 ATS (75%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@SFW17 2025 | CHI 38, SF 42 | SF | W |
| SF@CHIW1 2022 | SF 10, CHI 19 | SF | L |
| SF@CHIW8 2021 | SF 33, CHI 22 | CHI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 6.4. The market has SF at -3.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, CHI 13, SF 38. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -3.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 1.5 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, CHI 38, SF 42 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: CHI -0.088 against SF +0.028.
