Bengals vs Cowboys – Week 14 2024
CIN
DAL
CIN
AWAY
27@20
CIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 27, Dallas Cowboys 20.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 63%Our line: DAL -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL +5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -4.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
+0.053Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (29)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.083 (30)
47.2% (9)Offense success %40.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 4.4, the model overestimated by 11.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DALW2 2022 | CIN 17, DAL 20 | DAL | W |
| DAL@CINW14 2020 | DAL 30, CIN 7 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 4.4. The market has DAL at +5.0.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 27, DAL 20. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +5.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 14, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 5.0 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2024 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, CIN 17, DAL 20 in Week 2 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Cincinnati Bengals: CIN +0.053 against DAL -0.192.
