2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ DAL – Week 14 2024
CIN
DAL
CIN
AWAY
27@20
CIN +7
FINAL · WEEK 14
2024 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DAL 63%Projected margin: 2.7
DAL
PICK SIDE
+5.0
SPREAD
2.7
PROJ MARGIN
+205
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but CIN won. Projected margin was 2.7 -- the model overestimated by 9.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +5.0 | DAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | +205 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +190 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
DAL
home_underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)Home Underdog 2-5 ATS (29%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
DAL
C.Lamb
WR
263.4SEASON PPR
R.Dowdle
RB
197.8SEASON PPR
J.Tolbert
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DALW2 2022 | CIN 17, DAL 20 | DAL | W |
| DAL@CINW14 2020 | DAL 30, CIN 7 | DAL | W |
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES