Cowboys vs Bengals – Week 14 2020
DAL
CIN
DAL
AWAY
30@7
DAL BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 30, Cincinnati Bengals 7.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 53%Our line: DAL -0.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -0.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
53%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.098Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.038 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (26)
+0.060 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.092 (26)
45.7% (17)Offense success %43.6% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DAL. Projected margin: 0.9. Actual: 23. Off by 22.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 20.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Andy Dalton2170 yd · 14 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper92 rec · 1114 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@DALW14 2024 | CIN 27, DAL 20 | DAL | L |
| CIN@DALW2 2022 | CIN 17, DAL 20 | DAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs CIN
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 53% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DAL by 0.9. The market has DAL at -3.0.
Dallas Cowboys won, DAL 30, CIN 7. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 53% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.0, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 14, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 27, DAL 20 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL -0.098 against CIN -0.141.
