Falcons vs Chargers – Week 14 2020
ATL
LAC
ATL
AWAY
17@20
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 14
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 17, Los Angeles Chargers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: ATL 56%Our line: ATL -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 14
-0.042Net EPA / play+0.001
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.027 (15)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
43.2% (26)Offense success %43.2% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but LAC won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 5.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 14
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@ATLW13 2024 | LAC 17, ATL 13 | ATL | L |
| LAC@ATLW9 2022 | LAC 20, ATL 17 | LAC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 14 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs LAC
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project ATL by 2.2. The market has ATL at +1.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, ATL 17, LAC 20. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at +1.0, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 14, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 1.6 below the market.
Week 14 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 17, ATL 13 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: ATL -0.042 against LAC +0.001.
