Chargers vs Falcons – Week 9 2022
LAC
ATL
LAC
AWAY
20@17
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 20, Atlanta Falcons 17.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Chargers, 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: LAC 59%Our line: LAC -3.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.075
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.005 (14)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.080 (31)
44.1% (18)Offense success %45.5% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 3.1. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
ATL
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@ATLW13 2024 | LAC 17, ATL 13 | ATL | L |
| ATL@LACW14 2020 | ATL 17, LAC 20 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs ATL
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.1. The market has LAC at -2.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 20, ATL 17. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 9, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 3.7 below the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 17, ATL 13 in Week 13 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against ATL -0.075.
