2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ CHI – Week 9 2022
MIA
CHI
MIA
AWAY
35@32
MIA +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
CHI
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 66%Projected margin: -4.4
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-4.4
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 4.4. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point -- a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -193 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9SEASON PPR
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES