MIA @ CHI – Week 9 2022
MIA
CHI
MIA
AWAY
35@32
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.5
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-193
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.039Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.047Offense EPA / play-0.046
+0.008Defense EPA / play+0.118
44.5%Offense success %40.5%
42.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -193 | +172 |
| Our fair price | -193 | +193 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.56
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
341.2 SEASON PPR
Jaylen Waddle
WR
259.2 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
230.9 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
Jaylen Waddle75 rec · 1356 yd · 8 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.5. The market has MIA at -4.0.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against CHI -0.164.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
