Dolphins vs Bears – Week 9 2022
MIA
CHI
MIA
AWAY
35@32
MIA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 35, Chicago Bears 32.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 66%Our line: MIA -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
+0.039Net EPA / play-0.164
+0.047 (7)Offense EPA / play-0.046 (23)
+0.008 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (32)
44.5% (16)Offense success %40.5% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIA by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.0 point, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
17 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
17 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa3548 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert891 yd · 3 TD
Jeff Wilson392 yd · 3 TD
Chase Edmonds120 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1710 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs CHI
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.5. The market has MIA at -4.0.
Miami Dolphins won, MIA 35, CHI 32. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -4.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 9, the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 1.9 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.039 against CHI -0.164.
