2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ KC – Week 9 2022
TEN
KC
TEN
AWAY
17@20
KC +3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER C
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 60%Projected margin: 1.9
KC
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
1.9
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 1.9. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -689 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
417.4SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
316.3SEASON PPR
Jerick McKinnon
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@TENW16 2025 | KC 9, TEN 26 | KC | L |
| KC@TENW7 2021 | KC 3, TEN 27 | TEN | W |
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES