Titans vs Chiefs – Week 9 2022
TEN
KC
TEN
AWAY
17@20
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 9
2022 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 17, Kansas City Chiefs 20.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 60%Our line: KC -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 9
-0.064Net EPA / play+0.204
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.186 (1)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (14)
41.1% (22)Offense success %50.4% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 3.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
KC
Road Favorite 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 9
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@TENW16 2025 | KC 9, TEN 26 | KC | L |
| KC@TENW7 2021 | KC 3, TEN 27 | TEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 3.3. The market has KC at -14.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, TEN 17, KC 20. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -14.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 9, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 1.8 above the market.
Week 9 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Tennessee Titans, KC 9, TEN 26 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Kansas City Chiefs: TEN -0.064 against KC +0.204.
