Chiefs vs Titans – Week 7 2021
KC
TEN
KC
AWAY
3@27
TEN BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 3, Tennessee Titans 27.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chiefs, 3 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 51%Our line: TEN -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -0.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.119Net EPA / play+0.055
+0.144 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.022 (15)
+0.025 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.033 (9)
51.1% (1)Offense success %44.6% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 0.4. Actual: 24. Off by 23.6 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
14 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@TENW16 2025 | KC 9, TEN 26 | KC | L |
| TEN@KCW9 2022 | TEN 17, KC 20 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs TEN
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 0.4. The market has TEN at +4.0.
Tennessee Titans won, KC 3, TEN 27. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 51% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +4.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 7, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 57.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.7, 8.8 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, KC 9, TEN 26 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against TEN +0.055.
