2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ TEN – Week 7 2021
KC
TEN
KC
AWAY
3@27
TEN +24
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
TEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TEN 51%Projected margin: -0.2
TEN
PICK SIDE
+4.0
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
+178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 0.2. Actual: 24. Off by 24.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.0 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +185 | Won · +$1.78 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
14 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
262.8SEASON PPR
TEN
Ryan Tannehill
QB
268.4SEASON PPR
Derrick Henry
RB
193.3SEASON PPR
A.J. Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@TENW16 2025 | KC 9, TEN 26 | KC | L |
| TEN@KCW9 2022 | TEN 17, KC 20 | KC | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES