Commanders vs Packers – Week 7 2021
WAS
GB
WAS
AWAY
10@24
GB BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 10, Green Bay Packers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Commanders, 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 70%Our line: GB -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -7.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.124Net EPA / play+0.127
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.134 (3)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (16)
43.9% (20)Offense success %48.6% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 14. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
49°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@GBW2 2025 | WAS 18, GB 27 | GB | W |
| GB@WASW7 2022 | GB 21, WAS 23 | GB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 7.1. The market has GB at -8.5.
Green Bay Packers won, WAS 10, GB 24. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -8.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 7, the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.1, 0.9 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, WAS 18, GB 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Green Bay Packers: WAS -0.124 against GB +0.127.
