Saints vs Seahawks – Week 7 2021
NO
SEA
NO
AWAY
13@10
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 13, Seattle Seahawks 10.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 58%Our line: NO -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -2.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.003
-0.074 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.031 (14)
-0.109 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.028 (22)
40.6% (28)Offense success %43.2% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 2.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
SEA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
54°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@SEAW3 2025 | NO 13, SEA 44 | SEA | W |
| SEA@NOW5 2022 | SEA 32, NO 39 | SEA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs SEA
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 2.8. The market has NO at -6.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 13, SEA 10. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -6.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 7, the New Orleans Saints were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 4.8 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, NO 13, SEA 44 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.035 against SEA +0.003.
