2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ LV – Week 7 2021
PHI
LV
PHI
AWAY
22@33
LV +11
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LV
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LV 60%Projected margin: 4.9
LV
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
4.9
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 4.9. Actual: 11. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | LV market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -108 | Won · +$0.87 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PHI
Jalen Hurts
QB
312.2SEASON PPR
DeVonta Smith
WR
185.6SEASON PPR
Dallas Goedert
TE
165.0SEASON PPR
LV
Hunter Renfrow
WR
259.1SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
257.0SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@PHIW15 2025 | LV 0, PHI 31 | PHI | W |
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES