Eagles vs Raiders – Week 7 2021
PHI
LV
PHI
AWAY
22@33
LV BY 11
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 22, Las Vegas Raiders 33.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders.
Model confidence: LV 60%Our line: LV -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.064
+0.070 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.019 (20)
+0.011 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (25)
46.9% (8)Offense success %44.9% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LV. Projected margin: 3.5. Actual: 11. Off by 7.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
LV
Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@PHIW15 2025 | LV 0, PHI 31 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs LV
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 3.5. The market has LV at -1.0.
Las Vegas Raiders won, PHI 22, LV 33. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -1.0, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 7, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 1.0 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, LV 0, PHI 31 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.059 against LV -0.064.
