ATL @ MIA – Week 7 2021
ATL
MIA
ATL
AWAY
30@28
ATL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: ATL 50%Our line: ATL +0.0
ATL
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.180Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.098Offense EPA / play-0.059
+0.082Defense EPA / play-0.028
40.4%Offense success %41.3%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 0.0. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -129 | +117 |
| Our fair price | +100 | -100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ATL -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.81
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
55%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for ATL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
Russell Gage66 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@ATLW8 2025 | MIA 34, ATL 10 | ATL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.0. The market has ATL at -1.5.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, ATL 10 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: ATL -0.180 against MIA -0.031.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
