Falcons vs Dolphins – Week 7 2021
ATL
MIA
ATL
AWAY
30@28
ATL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 30, Miami Dolphins 28.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Falcons.
Model confidence: ATL 50%Our line: ATL +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
-0.180Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (22)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.028 (10)
40.4% (29)Offense success %41.3% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 0.0. Actual: 2 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@ATLW8 2025 | MIA 34, ATL 10 | ATL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs MIA
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 0.0. The market has ATL at -1.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 30, MIA 28. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -1.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 7, the Atlanta Falcons were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 0.6 below the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 34, ATL 10 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Miami Dolphins: ATL -0.180 against MIA -0.031.
