Colts vs 49ers – Week 7 2021
IND
SF
IND
AWAY
30@18
IND BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 7
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 30, San Francisco 49ers 18.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Colts, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: IND 57%Our line: IND -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
IND +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -2.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 7
+0.045Net EPA / play+0.120
+0.051 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
+0.006 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
44.3% (16)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked IND. Projected margin: 2.4. Actual: 12. Off by 9.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 15.5 points.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Carson Wentz3563 yd · 27 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 7
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@INDW16 2025 | SF 48, IND 27 | SF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 7 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs SF
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project IND by 2.4. The market has IND at +3.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, IND 30, SF 18. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at +3.5, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 7, the Indianapolis Colts were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 6.7 above the market.
Week 7 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 48, IND 27 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: IND +0.045 against SF +0.120.
