49ers vs Colts – Week 16 2025
SF
IND
SF
AWAY
48@27
SF BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 48, Indianapolis Colts 27.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 49ers, 5 Colts.
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.068
+0.088 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.072 (9)
+0.070 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (16)
48.3% (4)Offense success %46.3% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 4.1. Actual: 21. Off by 16.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Road Favorite 6-0 ATS (100%)
IND
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@SFW7 2021 | IND 30, SF 18 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs IND
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -4.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 48, IND 27. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -4.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 16, the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.0 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Indianapolis Colts, IND 30, SF 18 in Week 7 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: SF +0.018 against IND +0.068.
