2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BUF @ CLE – Week 16 2025
BUF
CLE
BUF
AWAY
23@20
BUF +3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 80%Projected margin: -9.4
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
-9.4
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.4. Actual: 3. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
CLE
H.Fannin
TE
186.4SEASON PPR
Q.Judkins
RB
169.8SEASON PPR
J.Jeudy
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@BUFW11 2022 | CLE 23, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES