BUF @ CLE – Week 16 2025
BUF
CLE
BUF
AWAY
23@20
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
Model confidence: BUF 80%Our line: BUF -11.6
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-11.6
OUR LINE
-412
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.136Offense EPA / play-0.190
-0.016Defense EPA / play-0.096
48.5%Offense success %34.5%
42.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 11.6. Actual: 3. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | BUF | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -575 | +425 |
| Our fair price | -412 | +412 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BUF -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
80%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
82%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for BUF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6 SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2 SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4 SEASON PPR
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@BUFW11 2022 | CLE 23, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs CLE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 11.6. The market has BUF at -10.5.
The model projects 45.0 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, CLE 23, BUF 31 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against CLE -0.094.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
