Bills vs Browns – Week 16 2025
BUF
CLE
BUF
AWAY
23@20
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Buffalo Bills 23, Cleveland Browns 20.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Bills, 6 Browns.
Model confidence: BUF 80%Our line: BUF -11.6
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -11.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.152Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.136 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
-0.016 (13)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
48.5% (2)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 11.6. Actual: 3. Off by 8.6 points but directionally right.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds and 25°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BUF
Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
25°F
WIND
16 MPH
COLD GAMEWINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@BUFW11 2022 | CLE 23, BUF 31 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs CLE
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 11.6. The market has BUF at -10.5.
Buffalo Bills won, BUF 23, CLE 20. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 80% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.0, 3.5 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, CLE 23, BUF 31 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: BUF +0.152 against CLE -0.094.
