NYJ @ NO · Week 16 2025

Q: Who is favored in New York Jets at New Orleans Saints?

Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 5.9. The market has NO at -6.5.

Q: What is the projected total for New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints?

The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 39.5.

Q: When do the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints play?

Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.

Q: Who won the last New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints game?

New Orleans Saints, NO 30, NYJ 9 in Week 14 of 2021.

Q: Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the New Orleans Saints?

By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NYJ -0.274 against NO -0.029.

NYJ

NYJ

AWAY

6@29

NO BY 23

FINAL · WEEK 16

2025 SEASON

Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA

HOME

PICK: NO

TIER B

PICK WONATS ✓

NYJ 33%

NO 67%

Model confidence: NO 67%

Our line: NO -5.9

PICK SIDE

-6.5

MARKET SPREAD

-5.9

OUR LINE

-203

OUR ML

—

LIVE ML

COVERED

VS SPREAD

TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16

NYJ	METRIC	NO
-0.274	NET EPA/PLAY	-0.029
-0.127	OFF EPA/PLAY	-0.088
+0.147	DEF EPA/PLAY	-0.059
300	POINTS FOR	306
503	POINTS AGAINST	383
55.1%	PASS RATE	59.7%

EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE

-0.274Net EPA / play-0.029

-0.127Offense EPA / play-0.088

+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.059

40.7%Offense success %42.0%

45.6%Defense success %

GAME NARRATIVE

NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.

CORRECT

Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 23. Off by 17.1 points but directionally right.

INSTANT CLASSIC

The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.

COVERED

This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.

Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.

BETTING LINE

SOURCE	NYJ	NO
Closing line	+240	-298
Our fair price	+203	-203

Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.

SPREAD NO -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39

OUR NUMBER

67%

MARKET, VIG REMOVED

72%

DIFFERENCE

-5%

Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.

GAME TOTAL

PREDICTED TOTAL

46.0

VEGAS LINE

39.5

ALL GAME TOTALS →

SITUATIONAL TRENDS

Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.

NYJ

Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)

NO

Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)

GAME WEATHER

VENUE

DOME

CLIMATE CONTROLLED

IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY

TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON

NYJ

B.Hall

RB

207.7 SEASON PPR

J.Fields

QB

142.7 SEASON PPR

G.Wilson

WR

99.5 SEASON PPR

NO

DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT

New York Jets

PASSING

J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT

RUSHING

B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD

J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD

I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD

RECEIVING

G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD

M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD

INJURY REPORTWEEK 16

NYJ5 LISTED

Eric Watts

DE · Concussion

OUT

Francisco Mauigoa

LB · Neck

OUT

Mason Taylor

TE · Neck

OUT

HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING

GAME	SCORE	PICK	RESULT
NO@NYJW14 2021	NO 30, NYJ 9	NO	W

FULL COMPARISON →

COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NO

QUESTIONS

Who is favored in New York Jets at New Orleans Saints?

What is the projected total for New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints?

When do the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints play?

Who won the last New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints game?

Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the New Orleans Saints?

WHAT PRO ADDS

Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.

See the Edge