Jets vs Saints – Week 16 2025
NYJ
NO
NYJ
AWAY
6@29
NO BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 6, New Orleans Saints 29.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Jets, 3 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 67%Our line: NO -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.274Net EPA / play-0.029
-0.127 (29)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
+0.147 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (10)
40.7% (29)Offense success %42.0% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 5.9. Actual: 23. Off by 17.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 16.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NO by 5.9. The market has NO at -6.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NYJ 6, NO 29. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -6.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 16, the New York Jets were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 6.5 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 30, NYJ 9 in Week 14 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New Orleans Saints: NYJ -0.274 against NO -0.029.
