Falcons vs Cardinals – Week 16 2025
ATL
ARI
ATL
AWAY
26@19
ATL BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 26, Arizona Cardinals 19.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Falcons, 5 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ATL 66%Our line: ATL -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.018Net EPA / play-0.107
-0.021 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.018 (23)
-0.004 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.088 (27)
43.7% (18)Offense success %43.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ATL by 5.6. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.4 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@ARIW10 2023 | ATL 23, ARI 25 | ATL | L |
| ARI@ATLW17 2022 | ARI 19, ATL 20 | ATL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs ARI
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 5.6. The market has ATL at -2.5.
Atlanta Falcons won, ATL 26, ARI 19. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -2.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the Atlanta Falcons were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Arizona Cardinals were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.2, 4.3 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ATL 23, ARI 25 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.018 against ARI -0.107.
