Packers vs Bears – Week 16 2025
GB
CHI
GB
AWAY
16@22
CHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 16, Chicago Bears 22.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Packers, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 62%Our line: CHI -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -4.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.082Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
47.7% (5)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected CHI by 4.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@GBW5 2026 | CHI 7, GB 31 | CHI | L |
| CHI@GBW14 2025 | CHI 21, GB 28 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2024 | CHI 24, GB 22 | GB | L |
| GB@CHIW11 2024 | GB 20, CHI 19 | GB | W |
| CHI@GBW18 2023 | CHI 9, GB 17 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 62% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.2. The market has CHI at -1.5.
Chicago Bears won, GB 16, CHI 22. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -1.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 16, the Green Bay Packers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 1.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SAT 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CHI 7, GB 31 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against CHI +0.061.
