Vikings vs Giants – Week 16 2025
MIN
NYG
MIN
AWAY
16@13
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 16, New York Giants 13.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Vikings, 4 Giants.
Model confidence: MIN 66%Our line: MIN -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -5.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.012 (17)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.087 (25)
42.6% (23)Offense success %42.1% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 11 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
HIGH WIND
20 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYG
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
20 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@NYGW1 2024 | MIN 28, NYG 6 | NYG | L |
| NYG@MINW16 2022 | NYG 24, MIN 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs NYG
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 5.5. The market has MIN at -2.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 16, NYG 13. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 16, the Minnesota Vikings were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 4.2 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 28, NYG 6 in Week 1 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against NYG -0.075.
