Steelers vs Lions – Week 16 2025
PIT
DET
PIT
AWAY
29@24
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 29, Detroit Lions 24.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers, 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.9
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -4.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.025 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.081 (7)
+0.018 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.010 (14)
44.0% (17)Offense success %45.2% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but PIT won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@PITW10 2021 | DET 16, PIT 16 | PIT | P |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.9. The market has DET at -7.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 29, DET 24. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -7.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 16, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 6.0 below the market.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
They tied, DET 16, PIT 16 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: PIT +0.007 against DET +0.091.
