PIT @ DET – Week 16 2025
PIT
DET
PIT
AWAY
29@24
PIT BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: DET 64%Our line: DET -4.9
DET
PICK SIDE
-7.5
MARKET SPREAD
-4.9
OUR LINE
-179
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.091
+0.025Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.018Defense EPA / play-0.010
44.0%Offense success %45.2%
43.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but PIT won. Projected margin was 4.9, the model overestimated by 9.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 13 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +330 | -425 |
| Our fair price | +179 | -179 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -7.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
78%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PIT
A.Rodgers
QB
227.1 SEASON PPR
K.Gainwell
RB
221.3 SEASON PPR
J.Warren
RB
217.1 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
A.Rodgers3322 yd · 24 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
J.Warren958 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell537 yd · 5 TD
K.Johnson69 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
D.Metcalf59 rec · 850 yd · 6 TD
K.Gainwell73 rec · 486 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@PITW10 2021 | DET 16, PIT 16 | PIT | P |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DET by 4.9. The market has DET at -7.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 52.5.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
They tied, DET 16, PIT 16 in Week 10 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: PIT +0.007 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
