CIN @ MIA – Week 16 2025
CIN
MIA
CIN
AWAY
45@21
CIN BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 16
2025 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 67%Our line: MIA -5.9
MIA
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
-5.9
OUR LINE
-203
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.138Net EPA / play-0.105
-0.009Offense EPA / play-0.017
+0.130Defense EPA / play+0.088
45.5%Offense success %41.9%
47.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but CIN won. Projected margin was 5.9, the model overestimated by 29.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -205 | +170 |
| Our fair price | +203 | -203 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
67%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
36%
DIFFERENCE
+31%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
313.6 SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
282.6 SEASON PPR
T.Higgins
WR
211.6 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
J.Burrow1809 yd · 17 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
C.Brown1019 yd · 6 TD
S.Perine382 yd · 3 TD
T.Brooks45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
J.Chase125 rec · 1412 yd · 8 TD
T.Higgins59 rec · 846 yd · 11 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@CINW4 2022 | MIA 15, CIN 27 | MIA | L |
| CIN@MIAW13 2020 | CIN 7, MIA 19 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 5.9. The market has MIA at +3.5.
The model projects 44.7 combined points. The market total is 48.5.
Week 16 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, MIA 15, CIN 27 in Week 4 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Miami Dolphins: CIN -0.138 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
