CIN @ MIA – Week 13 2020
CIN
MIA
CIN
AWAY
7@19
MIA BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 70%Our line: MIA -7.2
MIA
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-7.2
OUR LINE
-238
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.049Offense EPA / play+0.007
+0.092Defense EPA / play-0.041
43.6%Offense success %46.0%
45.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 12. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CIN | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +397 | -491 |
| Our fair price | +238 | -238 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
81%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CIN
Tee Higgins
WR
194.6 SEASON PPR
Tyler Boyd
WR
192.6 SEASON PPR
Joe Burrow
QB
173.7 SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cincinnati BengalsPASSING
Joe Burrow2688 yd · 13 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
Joe Mixon428 yd · 3 TD
Giovani Bernard416 yd · 3 TD
Samaje Perine301 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tee Higgins67 rec · 908 yd · 6 TD
Tyler Boyd79 rec · 841 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| MIA@CINW4 2022 | MIA 15, CIN 27 | MIA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIA
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.2. The market has MIA at -10.5.
The model projects 45.9 combined points. The market total is 43.0.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 45, MIA 21 in Week 16 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: CIN -0.141 against MIA +0.048.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
