Bengals vs Dolphins – Week 13 2020
CIN
MIA
CIN
AWAY
7@19
MIA BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 7, Miami Dolphins 19.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 2 Dolphins.
Model confidence: MIA 70%Our line: MIA -7.2
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -7.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.141Net EPA / play+0.048
-0.049 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.007 (19)
+0.092 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.041 (7)
43.6% (23)Offense success %46.0% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 7.2. Actual: 12. Off by 4.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@MIAW5 2026 | CIN 31, MIA 24 | CIN | W |
| CIN@MIAW16 2025 | CIN 45, MIA 21 | MIA | L |
| MIA@CINW4 2022 | MIA 15, CIN 27 | MIA | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs MIA
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIA by 7.2. The market has MIA at -10.5.
Miami Dolphins won, CIN 7, MIA 19. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -10.5, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 13, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Miami Dolphins were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 2.9 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 31, MIA 24 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: CIN -0.141 against MIA +0.048.
