Raiders vs Jets – Week 13 2020
LV
NYJ
LV
AWAY
31@28
LV BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 31, New York Jets 28.
Going in, our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Raiders, 1 Jets.
Model confidence: LV 60%Our line: LV -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
LV -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LV -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LV · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.085Net EPA / play-0.227
+0.045 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (32)
+0.130 (29)Defense EPA / play+0.084 (25)
46.5% (11)Offense success %40.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
LV B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LV by 3.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.5 points.
HIGH WIND
18 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
18 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Derek Carr4103 yd · 27 TD · 9 INT
RECEIVING
Darren Waller107 rec · 1196 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ@LVW10 2023 | NYJ 12, LV 16 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs NYJ
Our model takes Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LV by 3.3. The market has LV at -7.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, LV 31, NYJ 28. Our model had favored Las Vegas Raiders at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Las Vegas Raiders at -7.5, meaning the book expects Las Vegas Raiders to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 13, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 0.0 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, NYJ 12, LV 16 in Week 10 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.085 against NYJ -0.227.
