2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ HOU – Week 13 2020
IND
HOU
IND
AWAY
26@20
IND +6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: HOU 51%Projected margin: -0.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but IND won. Projected margin was 0.2 -- the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +157 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2SEASON PPR
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@HOUW18 2025 | IND 30, HOU 38 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW13 2025 | HOU 20, IND 16 | IND | L |
| IND@HOUW8 2024 | IND 20, HOU 23 | HOU | W |
| HOU@INDW1 2024 | HOU 29, IND 27 | IND | L |
| HOU@INDW18 2023 | HOU 23, IND 19 | IND | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES