2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ KC – Week 13 2020
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
16@22
KC +6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 71%Projected margin: 8.2
KC
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
8.2
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 8.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -660 | Won · +$0.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
9 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
| KC@DENW8 2023 | KC 9, DEN 24 | KC | L |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES