Broncos vs Chiefs – Week 13 2020
DEN
KC
DEN
AWAY
16@22
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 16, Kansas City Chiefs 22.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 71%Our line: KC -7.5
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -13.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -7.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.147Net EPA / play+0.138
-0.104 (31)Offense EPA / play+0.184 (2)
+0.043 (18)Defense EPA / play+0.045 (19)
38.8% (32)Offense success %50.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 7.5. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3 SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
161.2 SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Drew Lock2933 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Melvin Gordon986 yd · 9 TD
Phillip Lindsay502 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman170 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy52 rec · 856 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@KCW1 2026 | DEN 10, KC 31 | DEN | L |
| DEN@KCW17 2025 | DEN 20, KC 13 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW11 2025 | KC 19, DEN 22 | DEN | W |
| KC@DENW18 2024 | KC 0, DEN 38 | KC | L |
| DEN@KCW10 2024 | DEN 14, KC 16 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project KC by 7.5. The market has KC at -13.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, DEN 16, KC 22. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 71% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -13.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 13.0 points.
In Week 13, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 5.7 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, DEN 10, KC 31 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: DEN -0.147 against KC +0.138.
