Lions vs Bears – Week 13 2020
DET
CHI
DET
AWAY
34@30
DET BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 34, Chicago Bears 30.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions.
Model confidence: CHI 57%Our line: CHI -2.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -2.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.208Net EPA / play-0.033
-0.005 (22)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (24)
+0.203 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.006 (10)
44.3% (21)Offense success %43.6% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but DET won. Projected margin was 2.3, the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
35°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CHIW18 2025 | DET 19, CHI 16 | CHI | L |
| CHI@DETW2 2025 | CHI 21, DET 52 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW16 2024 | DET 34, CHI 17 | DET | W |
| CHI@DETW13 2024 | CHI 20, DET 23 | DET | W |
| DET@CHIW14 2023 | DET 13, CHI 28 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 2.3. The market has CHI at -3.0.
Detroit Lions won, DET 34, CHI 30. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at -3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 13, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.6 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 19, CHI 16 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Chicago Bears: DET -0.208 against CHI -0.033.
