Jaguars vs Vikings – Week 13 2020
JAX
MIN
JAX
AWAY
24@27
MIN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Minnesota Vikings 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Jaguars, 3 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 73%Our line: MIN -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -8.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.204Net EPA / play-0.003
-0.059 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (8)
+0.145 (30)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (27)
41.5% (28)Offense success %49.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIN. Projected margin: 8.1. Actual: 3. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@JAXW10 2024 | MIN 12, JAX 7 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 73% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIN by 8.1. The market has MIN at -10.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, JAX 24, MIN 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -10.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 13, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 4.2 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 12, JAX 7 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: JAX -0.204 against MIN -0.003.
