Patriots vs Chargers – Week 13 2020
NE
LAC
NE
AWAY
45@0
NE BY 45
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 45, Los Angeles Chargers 0.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers.
Model confidence: NE 56%Our line: NE -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
NE +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.004 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.027 (15)
+0.071 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.026 (15)
46.1% (12)Offense success %43.2% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 45. Off by 42.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 47.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW17 2024 | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC | W |
| LAC@NEW13 2023 | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW8 2021 | NE 27, LAC 24 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LAC
Our model takes New England Patriots at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.2. The market has NE at +2.5.
New England Patriots won, NE 45, LAC 0. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New England Patriots at +2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 13, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 0.9 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 40, NE 7 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: NE -0.076 against LAC +0.001.
