NE @ LAC – Week 13 2020
NE
LAC
NE
AWAY
45@0
NE BY 45
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: NE 56%Our line: NE -2.2
NE
PICK SIDE
+2.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.2
OUR LINE
-129
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.076Net EPA / play+0.001
-0.004Offense EPA / play+0.027
+0.071Defense EPA / play+0.026
46.1%Offense success %43.2%
48.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NE. Projected margin: 2.2. Actual: 45. Off by 42.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 47.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +117 | -129 |
| Our fair price | -129 | +129 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NE +2.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.43
OUR NUMBER
56%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
45%
DIFFERENCE
+11%
Both figures are for NE. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NE
Cam Newton
QB
261.0 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
142.5 SEASON PPR
James White
RB
116.6 SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
Damiere Byrd47 rec · 604 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW17 2024 | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC | W |
| LAC@NEW13 2023 | LAC 6, NE 0 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW8 2021 | NE 27, LAC 24 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs LAC
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New England Patriots at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.2. The market has NE at +2.5.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 40, NE 7 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Chargers: NE -0.076 against LAC +0.001.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
