Chargers vs Patriots – Week 13 2023
LAC
NE
LAC
AWAY
6@0
LAC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 6, New England Patriots 0.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 2 Patriots.
Model confidence: LAC 60%Our line: LAC -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.088Net EPA / play-0.136
-0.076 (24)Offense EPA / play-0.191 (31)
+0.012 (25)Defense EPA / play-0.055 (12)
41.0% (22)Offense success %38.9% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 3.4. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
44°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@NEW17 2024 | LAC 40, NE 7 | LAC | W |
| NE@LACW8 2021 | NE 27, LAC 24 | LAC | L |
| NE@LACW13 2020 | NE 45, LAC 0 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs NE
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 3.4. The market has LAC at -4.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 6, NE 0. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -4.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 13, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New England Patriots were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 4.8 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, LAC 40, NE 7 in Week 17 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC -0.088 against NE -0.136.
