2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ HOU – Week 13 2023
DEN
HOU
DEN
AWAY
17@22
HOU +5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 60%Projected margin: 1.7
HOU
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 5. Off by 3.3 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
179.2SEASON PPR
HOU
C.J. Stroud
QB
276.0SEASON PPR
Nico Collins
WR
260.4SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW9 2025 | DEN 18, HOU 15 | DEN | W |
| HOU@DENW2 2022 | HOU 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES