Broncos vs Texans – Week 13 2023
DEN
HOU
DEN
AWAY
17@22
HOU BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 13
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 17, Houston Texans 22.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 60%Our line: HOU -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -3.4
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.077Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
42.1% (14)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 3.4. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW9 2025 | DEN 18, HOU 15 | DEN | W |
| HOU@DENW2 2022 | HOU 9, DEN 16 | DEN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project HOU by 3.4. The market has HOU at -3.5.
Houston Texans won, DEN 17, HOU 22. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -3.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 13, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.2, 2.3 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 18, HOU 15 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: DEN -0.077 against HOU +0.014.
