HOU @ DEN – Week 2 2022
HOU
DEN
HOU
AWAY
9@16
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 59%Our line: DEN -3.2
DEN
PICK SIDE
-10.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.2
OUR LINE
-145
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.060
-0.189Offense EPA / play-0.109
+0.003Defense EPA / play-0.049
36.9%Offense success %38.1%
45.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 7. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +391 | -481 |
| Our fair price | +145 | -145 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -10.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.22
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-21%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5 SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
Chris Moore48 rec · 548 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW9 2025 | DEN 18, HOU 15 | DEN | W |
| DEN@HOUW13 2023 | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.2. The market has DEN at -10.5.
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 18, HOU 15 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: HOU -0.192 against DEN -0.060.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
