2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ DEN – Week 2 2022
HOU
DEN
HOU
AWAY
9@16
DEN +7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DEN
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 59%Projected margin: 1.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
-10.5
SPREAD
1.7
PROJ MARGIN
-453
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 1.7. Actual: 7. Off by 5.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -453 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.22 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6SEASON PPR
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW9 2025 | DEN 18, HOU 15 | DEN | W |
| DEN@HOUW13 2023 | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES