Texans vs Broncos – Week 2 2022
HOU
DEN
HOU
AWAY
9@16
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 9, Denver Broncos 16.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: DEN 59%Our line: DEN -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -3.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
DEN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
81%
DIFFERENCE
-22%
| SOURCE | HOU | DEN | DEN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +391 | -481 | 81.2% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.060
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.109 (30)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play-0.049 (9)
36.9% (32)Offense success %38.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DEN. Projected margin: 3.2. Actual: 7. Off by 3.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@HOUW9 2025 | DEN 18, HOU 15 | DEN | W |
| DEN@HOUW13 2023 | DEN 17, HOU 22 | HOU | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs DEN
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 3.2. The market has DEN at -10.5.
Denver Broncos won, HOU 9, DEN 16. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -10.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 2, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 18, HOU 15 in Week 9 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: HOU -0.192 against DEN -0.060.
