2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYJ @ CLE – Week 2 2022
NYJ
CLE
NYJ
AWAY
31@30
NYJ +1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2022 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER A
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 72%Projected margin: 7.0
CLE
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
7.0
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NYJ won. Projected margin was 7.0 -- the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYJ
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
CLE
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYJ
Garrett Wilson
WR
215.7SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
131.5SEASON PPR
Michael Carter
RB
126.0SEASON PPR
CLE
Nick Chubb
RB
281.4SEASON PPR
Amari Cooper
WR
246.0SEASON PPR
Jacoby Brissett
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYJW10 2025 | CLE 20, NYJ 27 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@CLEW17 2023 | NYJ 20, CLE 37 | CLE | W |
| CLE@NYJW16 2020 | CLE 16, NYJ 23 | CLE | L |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES