Browns vs Jets – Week 5 2026
CLE
NYJ
CLE
AWAY
12@17
NYJ BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 5
2026 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 7 Browns, 4 Jets.
A midweek injury update moved the Browns from 69% to 67%.
Model confidence: CLE 67%Our line: CLE -5.9
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 5
-0.058Net EPA / play+0.037
-0.080 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.025 (20)
-0.022 (15)Defense EPA / play-0.062 (5)
39.1% (28)Offense success %42.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NYJ won. Projected margin was 5.9, the model overestimated by 10.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
NYJ
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Cleveland BrownsPASSING
D.Watson1010 yd · 7 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
D.Boston16 rec · 330 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 5
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYJW10 2025 | CLE 20, NYJ 27 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@CLEW17 2023 | NYJ 20, CLE 37 | CLE | W |
| NYJ@CLEW2 2022 | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | CLE | L |
| CLE@NYJW16 2020 | CLE 16, NYJ 23 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 5 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NYJ
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 5.9. The market has CLE at +2.5.
New York Jets won, CLE 12, NYJ 17. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 67% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at +2.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 5, the Cleveland Browns were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.4, 2.9 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 5 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, CLE 20, NYJ 27 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Jets: CLE -0.058 against NYJ +0.037.
