BUF @ LA – Week 5 2026
BUF
LA
BUF
AWAY
@
MON 8:15 PM
WEEK 5 · 2026 SEASON
LA
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: LA 63%Projected margin: -2.4
LA
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.4
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.152Net EPA / play+0.206
+0.136Offense EPA / play+0.145
-0.016Defense EPA / play-0.061
48.5%Offense success %51.8%
42.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors LA (B-tier, 63% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
LA is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
LA goes for it on 4th down 29% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
Net-positive signal profile for LA. Grade: B.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BUF
J.Allen
QB
364.6SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
302.2SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
166.4SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Buffalo BillsPASSING
J.Allen3668 yd · 25 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Cook1621 yd · 12 TD
J.Allen579 yd · 14 TD
R.Davis275 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
K.Shakir72 rec · 719 yd · 4 TD
D.Kincaid39 rec · 571 yd · 5 TD
D.Knox36 rec · 417 yd · 4 TD
K.Coleman38 rec · 404 yd · 4 TD
VS
3,668PASSyds4,707
2,475RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW14 2024 | BUF 42, LA 44 | BUF | L |
| BUF@LAW1 2022 | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF | W |
| LA@BUFW3 2020 | LA 32, BUF 35 | LA | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSBUF vs LA
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams?
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 2.4. The market has LA at -3.0.
When do the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams play?
Week 5 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Who won the last Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams game?
Los Angeles Rams, 42-44 in Week 14 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Buffalo Bills or the Los Angeles Rams?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Rams: BUF +0.152 against LA +0.206.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
