2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LA @ BUF – Week 3 2020
LA
BUF
LA
AWAY
32@35
BUF +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER C
PICK: LA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: LA 51%Projected margin: -1.7
LA
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-1.7
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but BUF won. Projected margin was 1.7 -- the model overestimated by 4.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | LA market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +114 | Lost · -$1.00 |
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
Robert Woods
WR
245.1SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Cooper Kupp
WR
210.7SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
396.1SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
328.6SEASON PPR
Cole Beasley
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW14 2024 | BUF 42, LA 44 | BUF | L |
| BUF@LAW1 2022 | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES