Rams vs Bills – Week 3 2020
LA
BUF
LA
AWAY
32@35
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Rams 32, Buffalo Bills 35.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Rams, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: LA 51%Our line: LA -0.2
ODDS
SPREAD
LA +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -0.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.147
-0.015 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
-0.177 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
44.5% (20)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but BUF won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW5 2026 | BUF 37, LA 34 | LA | L |
| BUF@LAW14 2024 | BUF 42, LA 44 | BUF | L |
| BUF@LAW1 2022 | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs BUF
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.2. The market has LA at +1.5.
Buffalo Bills won, LA 32, BUF 35. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at +1.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 1.4 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 37, LA 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.162 against BUF +0.147.
