LA @ BUF – Week 3 2020
LA
BUF
LA
AWAY
32@35
BUF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
Model confidence: LA 51%Our line: LA -0.2
LA
PICK SIDE
+1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-0.2
OUR LINE
-103
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.162Net EPA / play+0.147
-0.015Offense EPA / play+0.164
-0.177Defense EPA / play+0.017
44.5%Offense success %50.2%
39.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
LA C-tier pick misses. BUF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but BUF won. Projected margin was 0.2, the model overestimated by 3.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
HIGH WIND
16 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | LA | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +114 | -126 |
| Our fair price | -103 | +103 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD LA +1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
51%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
46%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for LA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
16 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LA
Robert Woods
WR
245.1 SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
240.0 SEASON PPR
Cooper Kupp
WR
210.7 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles RamsPASSING
Jared Goff3952 yd · 20 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
Cam Akers625 yd · 2 TD
Darrell Henderson624 yd · 5 TD
Malcolm Brown419 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Cooper Kupp92 rec · 974 yd · 3 TD
Robert Woods90 rec · 936 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LAW14 2024 | BUF 42, LA 44 | BUF | L |
| BUF@LAW1 2022 | BUF 31, LA 10 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLA vs BUF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project LA by 0.2. The market has LA at +1.5.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 46.5.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Rams, BUF 42, LA 44 in Week 14 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: LA +0.162 against BUF +0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
