2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ BAL – Week 3 2020
KC
BAL
KC
AWAY
34@20
KC +14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BAL
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 60%Projected margin: 3.3
BAL
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
3.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but KC won. Projected margin was 3.3 -- the model overestimated by 17.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -174 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
374.4SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
328.9SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
312.8SEASON PPR
BAL
Lamar Jackson
QB
332.8SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
183.0SEASON PPR
Mark Andrews
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW4 2025 | BAL 20, KC 37 | KC | W |
| BAL@KCW1 2024 | BAL 20, KC 27 | BAL | L |
| KC@BALW2 2021 | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES