Chiefs vs Ravens – Week 3 2020
KC
BAL
KC
AWAY
34@20
KC BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 3
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Baltimore Ravens 20.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chiefs, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 60%Our line: BAL -3.4
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -3.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.180
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.120 (5)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (5)
50.1% (3)Offense success %45.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL B-tier pick misses. KC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked BAL but KC won. Projected margin was 3.4, the model overestimated by 17.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 17.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
73°F
WIND
8 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@KCW4 2025 | BAL 20, KC 37 | KC | W |
| BAL@KCW1 2024 | BAL 20, KC 27 | BAL | L |
| KC@BALW2 2021 | KC 35, BAL 36 | KC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BAL by 3.4. The market has BAL at -3.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 34, BAL 20. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -3.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.5, 6.5 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2020 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, BAL 20, KC 37 in Week 4 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: KC +0.138 against BAL +0.180.
